Australian Contingency Context Scenarios
DST has undertaken work in the area of preparatory scenario research to help Defence prepare for the future.
Preparatory scenarios concentrate on the key uncertainties and aim to minimise future regret by encouraging robust, resilient and redundant strategies that cope with these uncertainties.
Identification of the key uncertainties is critical to the success of preparatory scenario methods like the Australian Contingency Context Scenarios (ACCS) used in Australia’s capability based planning system.
DST scientists have worked with officers from the Director General of Strategy and Plans and a large pool of experienced Army officers to identify the key uncertainties for future land warfare for Army. To do so, they have developed an online, iterative, structured group technique allowing asynchronous access from many separate locations to poll busy experts at times that suit them. This method achieves more trustworthy and auditable results in considerably less time than older techniques required.