Modelling in the grey zone

Grand Challenge: The future is neither totally certain; nor totally uncertain. To what extent can we reduce apparently high future uncertainty through developing new theory, a lexicon and modelling approaches to anticipate, recognise, understand, interpret and respond to future events and dynamics?

Grey zone refers to the contemporary spectrum of conflict, where clear distinctions between peacetime and declared warfare are rapidly evaporating, replaced instead by a foggy continuum spanning cooperation - competition - confrontation - conflict.

This project proposes to generate a uniquely Australian intellectual edge by:

• Defining the contours of the future operating environment.
• Developing a coherent theory of problem-solving across Defence and National Security domains in the grey zone.
• Specifically modelling grey zone activities and the impact of ADF actions, complemented by National Security, to prevail in the grey zone.

This project will link to DSTG STaR Shots and proposes a solution approach of three broad lines-of-effort:

• Pushing theoretical frontiers  – responding to uncertainty.
• Reconceptualising the future operating environment.
• Developing and deploying grey zone modelling, simulation, experimentation and wargaming capabilities to inform operations and capability development.